There is, of course, great variation as scope is adjusted local to global. But in terms of US pull and push, the fourth quarter began in good shape — even very good shape.
Downstream demand as measured by real Personal Consumption Expenditures continues to edge upward (see chart below). Inflation-adjusted wages are above their pre-pandemic peaks and have risen for ten of the last eleven quarters. The personal savings rate has been slowly falling, but is double its 2022 low point. I perceive the US economy is increasingly bifurcated between the top two quintiles (annual mean household income: $123,000 and $282,000) and the bottom three quintiles (annual MHI: $16,000, $46.000, $78,000). But those top two have plenty of power to pull. (Here and here and here and here.)
Upstream production and services have been responsive to this pull. Real Gross Domestic Product per capita has consistently increased since mid-2022 and is more the eight percent higher than its pre-pandemic peak (see second chart below). Non-durable goods manufacturing (e.g., food, fuel, beverages, clothing), banking/finance, and medical goods) have been the fastest growing GDP components. It is still interesting how the Great Recession (2008) prompted a great reset in US production of non-durable goods. Our consumption of refined fuel is slowly declining. US imports of non-durable goods have increased.
Midstream flows are robust — and a bit better balanced than in many years (here and here). Speaking of imports, according to Maritime Executive, “the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have both posted their busiest quarters ever, as well as all-time highs for the month of September.” This surge includes avoiding the long-anticipated strike at east coast and Gulf Coast ports. Quickly ending — or at least postponing — the dockworkers strike has helped smooth midstream velocities. Rail is tight — tis the season (here and here and here). Trucking markets are tightening. On October 20 FreightWaves reported, “Tender rejection rates on a national level have eclipsed 5% once again, reaching one of the highest levels of the year so far… (but) there is still an excess of capacity in the market.” (see third chart below). Carriers are less pleased than shippers. But consumers appreciate the outcomes of the competitive context (here and here).
Plenty of demand, plenty of production, plenty of flow… from and for the top forty percent or so.

