Conversation

Preliminary thinking, speculation, and hypotheses. Earnestly intended and honestly attempted, but almost always needing further consideration, clarification, correction, or not-yet-found confirmation. These are research notes and homework still underway. Conversation is derived from the Latin meaning to turn together.

  • 335 million take the steps
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, “The all items [consumer price] index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending October. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.2 percent for the […]
  • (Not) Talking about tariffs (yet)
    Despite my less frequent posts I have heard from some surprisingly persistent readers. They have each asked for my take on the Trump tariff proposals (here and here and here and here among many more). Mr. Trump is not yet President. He is well-known for aggressive negotiation tactics. What is promised — threatened — often […]
  • Steady strong spending (and revenue)
    On the day before Thanksgiving, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported, “Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis … Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption […]
  • Push responds to pull
    The fourth quarter has opened with abundant US flows. According to Bloomberg, The Port of Long Beach moved nearly 1 million containers in October, beating a record set just two months ago. The surge was driven in part by importers diverting cargo to Southern California to avoid risk of delays from a labor dispute that […]
  • Pull-Push Pressures on Food
    In response to pandemic constraints (and concerns) food purchases in the United States surged in March 2020 and remained elevated for two years (see first chart below). Demand exceeded preexisting supply capacity for groceries (if not for all food). Despite the sudden increase in grocery pull, price increases lagged demand increases for several months. But […]
  • Hard hit on fat target
    The remnants of Hurricane Helene (September 27-28) were especially destructive for higher elevations northeast of Asheville, North Carolina. A Baxter Healthcare facility in North Cove, North Carolina along the North Fork Catawba River, about 1500 feet above sea level, was hit especially hard (NC flood map). According to the American Hospital Association, “The plant manufactures […]
  • Comparing Apples and Oranges?
    In late September the Asheville, North Carolina metro area and nearby was hit hard by the remnants of Hurricane Helene  (more). In late October Valencia, Spain and nearby experienced catastrophic rains caused by the high altitude collision of warm and cold air (more) sometimes called a gota fria (cold drop). Some comparisons: Asheville Three Day Precipitation […]
  • Demand pulling strong
    The Bureau of Economic Analysis report on September Personal Income and Outlays signaled healthy and growing demand. According to the BEA: The $105.8 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in September reflected an increase of $72.1 billion in spending for services and an increase of $33.7 billion in spending for goods (table 2). Within services, the […]
  • Downstream to Upstream
    There is, of course, great variation as scope is adjusted local to global. But in terms of US pull and push, the fourth quarter began in good shape — even very good shape. Downstream demand as measured by real Personal Consumption Expenditures continues to edge upward (see chart below). Inflation-adjusted wages are above their pre-pandemic […]
  • Reductionist Resilience
    On September 23 I posted on a prospective dock strike. Four weeks later I resume blogging following a brief dock strike, two major hurricanes (Helene and Milton), another grim permutation of the Gaza crisis, and plenty of evidence of persistently strong flows — almost everywhere except where most needed. It is a month-long story of […]
  • Possible Dock Strike Disruption
    In another seven days US Atlantic and Gulf coast ports may be hit by a dock strike. (Here and here and here and here and here and here.) This possibility has been recognized all year. It is likely that higher-than-usual summertime flows into these same ports reflect supply chain front-loading (more). Recent record volumes arriving […]
  • US food flows flatten
    Bloomberg reports, “US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, supported by online purchases that masked more mixed results at other merchants. The value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation, increased 0.1% after a revised 1.1% gain in July, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. Excluding autos and gasoline stations, sales advanced for fourth month.” Good demand is […]
  • Supply Chain Summit
    Tomorrow — Tuesday, September 10 — the US Department of Commerce and the Council on Foreign Relations will host a Supply Chain Summit. It is organized to explore proactive strategies to strengthen global supply chain resilience. At the link you can still register to participate virtually. Rana Foroohar, one of my favorite thinkers and writers, […]
  • Vulnerability can multiply or divide
    The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season opened with a big bang named Beryl, the earliest-forming Category 5 storm on record. Outcomes in the Caribbean, Gulf, and east Texas punctuated the forecast for more high-energy storms. But Chris and Debby were mostly rain events. Ernesto saved his worst for the open ocean. Since mid-August, not much. Axios […]
  • July PCE for Food
    In July 2019 residents of the United States, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, expended 1, 081 billion “real” inflation-adjusted dollars on Food-At-Home. This July we spent 1, 173 billion real dollars on groceries and related, about eight percent more. With inflation included, in July 2024 we spent almost 26 percent more on groceries […]
  • Demand as Strength and Vulnerability
    Supply is generated, delivered, and sold to fulfill demand. Supply Chain fitness reflects the capacity of upstream and midstream supply to fulfill downstream demand in a timely and affordable way. Contemporary high volume, high velocity supply chains depend on persistent (preferably increasing) demand. During the month of July real — inflation-adjusted — personal consumption expenditures […]
  • Current Condition of Adaptive Flows
    Most freight movements are local. But local deliveries often depend on significant upstream flows. Below is a map that the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics developed showing upstream flows by proportional ton for the United States. Some crucial domestic flows depend on global flows (mostly maritime flows) suggested by the screen capture farther below of […]
  • Price Gouging or Reality Signaling?
    On Tuesday, August 13, I was watching and working as soon-to-become Hurricane Ernesto approached Puerto Rico.  Early that morning I wrote to some colleagues, “DACO has announced a price freeze starting tonight (both my Adam Smith and Network Science predilections are always offended at this).” Puerto Rico’s Office of Consumer Affairs is not alone in such […]
  • Second-Half Flow Fitness
    The second half of 2024 has opened with moderating pull and sustainable push for food, energy, and most aspects of crucial freight. The Red Sea (Suez Canal) pinch point continues to prompt higher prices and some Asia-Europe port congestion. But current — and prospective — flows are mostly well-calibrated with fundamental demand. Food Flows Once […]
  • Healthy demand in June
    Sustained, strong demand is, I perceive, the best guarantor of resilient supply chains. High volume, high velocity contemporary supply chains demonstrate rather amazing creativity and adaptability when pull signals keep singing. (The reverse can also be true, when pull is muted, push is demoralized and distracted.) As such the monthly retail sales and personal consumption […]
  • Carrots, sticks, or conversation?
    What are the structural — systemic — vulnerabilities of contemporary supply chains? There are many. Which deserve the most attention? Odd Lots, the Bloomberg podcast, recently interviewed Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize winning economist, on this theme. Following are some excerpts: …firms don’t think about the consequences of underinvesting in capacity for others. They may […]
  • Accelerating Freight Flows
    Contemporary supply chain management works to minimize costs of excess capacity and inventory. The goal is to accurately anticipate demand so that supply is pushed Just-In-Time to precisely where consumer pull is present. Because it is less costly to make and buy in bulk and precise prediction is not always possible, there is usually some […]
  • Houston’s very hot wash
    Hurricane Beryl reached Category 5 much earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season than any other system on record. On July 1, as a CAT4, it devastated Carriacou. Jamaica’s south shore received a harsh passing swipe. On July 5 Beryl made landfall at Tulum as a high-end CAT2, continued across the Yucatan, then entered the Gulf […]
  • TARA is tougher now
    Supply Chain Resilience actions can often be characterized by one of four risk-oriented choices: Transfer, Avoid, Reduce, and/or Accept (TARA). Risk abundantly unfolds. We will experience bruising or worse. But with forethought and action, most risks can be mitigated. For example, potential loss-of-life from storm surge can be avoided by evacuating surge-prone places. Potential property […]

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