Conversation

Preliminary thinking, speculation, and hypotheses. Earnestly intended and honestly attempted, but almost always needing further consideration, clarification, correction, or not-yet-found confirmation. These are research notes and homework still underway. Conversation is derived from the Latin meaning to turn together.

  • March (well, February) Flow Fitness
    How goes food, fuel, and freight as the Northern Hemisphere pivots toward Spring? Gaza, Haiti, Sudan, and much of the Sahel and Horn of Africa face life-threatening food disconnects. There are food-related riots in Nigeria. Mozambique seems trapped in a manic cycle of drought, flood, and civil strife. Profound drought in Brazil threatens this year’s […]
  • Amalthea Maritime Channel
    Maritime food flows from Cyprus to Gaza were a good idea when first proposed in early November (more). This idea was even more promising last December when the EU endorsed and Israel signaled a tentative readiness to cooperate. If flows had actually begun in January our current context would be much more constructive. Maybe the […]
  • Nabulsi Roundabout Turn?
    Thursday’s calamity at Nabulsi continues to reverberate. There are many reports on different versions of what happened (for example, here and here and here). A March 1 report by the Wall Street Journal is most coherent with what I am hearing from other usually credible sources. (I was airborne at the time.) A Friday report […]
  • Persistent US Pull
    On Thursday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported, “Personal income increased $233.7 billion (1.0 percent at a monthly rate) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $67.6 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $54.3 billion (0.3 percent) […]
  • 133 Days
    In this February 16 report, NBC news provides a two-minute summary of causes and consequences of disrupted flows serving the people of Gaza. More detail is available here and here and here and here. Particular midstream logistical complications are outlined in this January 8 report by the World Food Program’s LogCluster. According to the United […]
  • February supply chain fitness update
    Reality is superabundant. Where are we looking? Over what time period? To what do we give priority? Lots of different angles to consider. Each month I try to evaluate the current condition of big flows. Here is where I landed in mid-January. Below are three gross indicators. Farther below are are few links to a […]
  • A no-win supply chain scenario?
    Please consider this scenario: One-hundred twenty days ago a Magnitude 7-plus earthquake hit a dense urban area. More than 2.3 million people are crowded into a roughly 25 mile by 6 mile matrix between a treacherously rocky littoral and high mountains. Almost everyday since there have been multiple after-shocks, many between M6 and M7. At […]
  • Noto: Lessons still to be learned
    On New Year’s Day the Noto Peninsula on the west coast of Japan experienced a significant earthquake. The US Geological Survey reported a Magnitude 7.5 quake. The main quake has been followed by more than 1500 aftershocks including one M6.4 and more than a dozen between M5 and M6. Today, February 6, for the first […]
  • Persistent PCE Pull
    Supply chains perceive demand. Supply chains are pulled by demand. Contemporary supply chains organize, size, and time push toward demand. One way to estimate pull in US supply chains is real (inflation-adjusted) Personal Consumption Expenditures (here and here). The chart below provides an overview of pull patterns since 2007 (figured with constant 2017 dollars). The […]
  • Deadly Network Friction
    According to an update from COGAT, the Israel Defense Forces unit coordinating access to Gaza, 227 humanitarian aid trucks were inspected and transferred to the Gaza Strip on January 15. “This is the highest number of aid trucks being transferred to Gaza in one day since the start of the war. 111 trucks were inspected […]
  • Big system, big flows, big picture just now
    So far, retrospective data and current observations suggest that US demand and supply networks are well-balanced. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ended December hovering around its long-term average. The Cass Freight Index is similarly well-behaved if compared to several pre-pandemic year-ends (more and more). The Logistics Managers Index, “moved back into expansion territory in […]
  • Doubling-down on electric demand
    This morning the FT is giving significant attention to the NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment. The Financial Times summarizes, “Nerc forecasts peak winter electricity demand growth of 11.6 per cent in the decade between 2024 to 2033, compared with growth of 5.4 per cent between 2019 and 2028. Summer peaks over the same time periods are […]
  • Paying to eat
    A few factors worth considering: During December the planet’s largest national economy was experiencing a strong labor market with higher wages during an extended holiday season featuring gift-giving, family reunions, and general partying. Weather was certainly variable, but nothing that would seriously constrain overall demand pulling supply (or push toward demand). Without knowing much more, […]
  • Avoiding risk generates friction
    According to a January 10 CNN report: The US Navy shot down 21 Houthi missiles and drones launched from Yemen, according to a statement from US Central Command, in one of the largest Houthi attacks to take place in the Red Sea in recent months. The military called it a “complex attack” carried out by the Iranian-backed militants. It comes amid […]
  • Bad start for new year
    Supply chain outcomes for the residents of Gaza have continued to deteriorate. Volumes discharged into Gaza remain well below the minimum needed 200 truckloads per day. (See chart below). The Kerem Shalom Crossing has resumed operations. According to COGAT, “A total of 163 trucks carrying humanitarian aid, including food, water, medical supplies, and shelter equipment […]
  • Friction slows flows
    Houthi forces have continued to attack ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab strait (more). A December 31 attack was repulsed by US Navy assets. A Maersk container ship was the intended Houthi target. In response Maersk has, again, suspended operations in the area (see map below). This will result in much longer sailings between East […]
  • Fundamentals of flow
    At the end of November, according the the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, pull and push were about as balanced as at any time this century. See chart below. Two US-focused measures — the Cass Freight Index and the Logistics Managers Index — can be read (without too much distortion) as coherent with the GSCPI […]
  • 2023 Consumption-Demand-Pull
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer […]
  • From dark into light
    Los puentes colgantes by Federico García Lorca Oh qué gran muchedumbre,invisible y renovada,la que viene a este jardína descabsar para siempre! Cada paso en la Tierranos lleva a un mundo nuevo.Cada pie lo apoyamossobre un puente colgante. Comprendo que no existeel camino derecho –Sólo un gran laberintode encrucijadas múltiples. Constantemente creannuestros pies al andarinmensos abanicosde […]
  • Kerem Shalom updates
    Just in case, updates on humanitarian logistics continue at the December 9 post. Please see chart below. Before October 7 a rough average of 500 trucks per day supplied the residents of Gaza. Two-hundred food and fuel trucks per day has been estimated as minimal to avoid mass starvation. [December 22 Update: Only eighty-eight supply […]
  • Long-term grid reliability (and risk)
    Last week the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (not to be confused with the winter reliability assessment). Here’s the first substantive paragraph in full: The North American BPS (Bulk Power System) is on the cusp of large-scale growth, bringing reliability challenges and opportunities to a grid that was […]
  • Houthis hit flows
    According to Bloomberg, “A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s second-largest owner of container ships, said in a statement on Friday that it has instructed its vessels heading for the southern entrance of the Red Sea to pause their voyages. Its vessel Maersk Gibraltar was attacked. Shortly after Maersk’s announcement, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd AG announced a halt until […]
  • Sales stay strong
    Many media — even financial media — were surprised by yesterday’s November US retail sales report. The FT headlined, “US sales rise unexpectedly in November“. Bloomberg was forward leaning, “US retail sales unexpectedly rise in solid start for the holidays“. The Wall Street Journal more narrowly noted economists were surprised. Given Tuesday’s CPI and big […]
  • Gaza: The Push Needed
    Since 2007 supply chains serving the 2.2 million-plus residents of the Gaza Strip have been constrained by complications imposed by neighboring states. Increasing poverty related to these complications has further suppressed demand and supply. Since early October military operations in Gaza have destroyed critical infrastructure including many supply chain nodes and links. Resupply has been […]

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