Conversation

Preliminary thinking, speculation, and hypotheses. Earnestly intended and honestly attempted, but almost always needing further consideration, clarification, correction, or not-yet-found confirmation. These are research notes and homework still underway. Conversation is derived from the Latin meaning to turn together.

  • Water, fuel, and food for Jamaica
    Hurricane Melissa is forecast to make landfall on Jamaica sometime early on Tuesday, October 28 (more). It will probably be a slow-moving Category 4 or 5 storm bringing catastrophic rains and 140 mile-per-hour plus winds. High winds and coastal storm surge will wreak havoc. The impact of flooding on transportation and water infrastructure is of […]
  • Demand demonstrates persistent pull
    According to the Bureau for Labor Statistics, “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after rising 0.4 percent in August… Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment… The index for gasoline rose 4.1 percent in […]
  • Free Trade Dialectics
    The Free Trade thesis of the late 20th Century is being challenged by President Trump’s tariff-positive antithesis and much more autarkic vision for the 21st Century United States. This thesis-antithesis clash has not produced a clear new synthesis — at least not yet. There are vigorous efforts to restore and preserve the prior thesis. Below […]
  • Feeding Gaza
    The estimated population of Gaza remains above 2 million. Some suggest up to 2.4 million people could still be resident in the roughly 50 miles long by 25 miles deep strip extending along the Mediterranean between Egypt and Israel. Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, flows of food, fuel, and other essentials […]
  • Inbound slows (as intended)
    Residents of the United States are the most high volume, high velocity consumers in the world. China’s factories are the most high volume, high velocity suppliers in the world. Demand and supply are engaged in an increasingly serious spat with already volatile outcomes. The Financial Times reports, “US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has accused China […]
  • Data informed or data driven?
    On October 1 ADP reported continued softening in the US labor market. CNBC explained, “Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown.” On October 3 the Institute for Supply Management reported, “In September, the Services […]
  • Supply Shocks
    Anyone who reads four or more of these blog posts will recognize I am preoccupied — obsessed — with demand. My understanding of substantive, sustainable Supply Chain Resilience is tightly related to demand dynamics. It is my experience that high-capacity supply chains are very adept at adapting when significant effectual demand is pulling. This bias […]
  • August Demand and the Horizon Ahead
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, during August US consumers earned and spent a bit more. “Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $86.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $129.2 billion (0.6 percent).” These are nominal, not-inflation-adjusted measures. The first chart below shows the real, inflation-adjusted, expenditure pattern. This volume and […]
  • Coming shifts in food demand
    In 2024 a bit more than twelve percent of US residents — roughly 42 million Americans — received benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP. Last year close to $100 billion in federal funding was spent on SNAP. Policy adjustments in the One Big Beautiful Bill, passed by Congress and signed by the […]
  • Strong August Retail
    US retail sales increased in August, even more than expected. See chart below. Bloomberg initially characterized the outcomes with, “consumers are still spending even as tariffs boost the cost of some goods, sentiment remains subdued and the labor market shows signs of faltering. Though wage growth has cooled, many workers’ pay gains continue to outpace inflation, […]
  • Flows Fluctuate
    First half 2025 US import volumes were choppy but higher overall (see green line on the chart below through end of July). Since a record-setting March, inbound flows have slowed but remain at historically high levels. According to the global shipping analyst Descartes, “In August 2025, U.S. container imports reached 2,519,722 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—the […]
  • Tariffs: Three Microeconomic Analogies
    Several recent tariff-related conversations have ended-up mostly focused on presumptive motivations for radical shifts in US tariff policy. Supply chain executives want to discern the why behind the what to better frame their own tariff-related decisions. If they can better understand where these tariffs are trying to take us, these executives hope they can develop […]
  • Steady Demand
    This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real (inflation adjusted) Personal Consumption Expenditures increased 0.3 percent in July. Please see chart below. According to the BEA, “Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal […]
  • Systemic Continuity
    In September 2015 I published an online primer for Supply Chain Resilience. In August 2025 I reviewed and — very slightly — updated this decade-old content. No corrections were needed. No oversights required gap-filling. For my purposes, the principles and patterns set out then still apply today. My revisions consisted entirely of more recent data […]
  • Robust but softening demand
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May… Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer […]
  • Consistent Spending Habits?
    Compared to March 2025, during the month of April US consumers earned a bit more, spent a bit more, saved more than in recent months, and spent less on a wide array of durable goods. Despite still robust demand (see first chart below) — and uncertainties related to supply — the year-over-year PCE price index […]
  • Deep Pockets
    According to the US Census Bureau (Department of Commerce), “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent from April 2024.” Bloomberg reported on […]
  • Demand Shock or Supply Shock?
    Wednesday morning on Bloomberg Surveillance (see video link below), Frances Donald, chief economist with the Royal Bank of Canada, highlighted the potential risk of “… dysfunctions in the supply chains that leads to more problematic developments this year.” She emphasized, “… when you start to mess with supply and demand dynamics within supply chains, when […]
  • US Demand Persists in March
    According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March… Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer […]
  • Obvious but underestimated?
    I have been surprised by how others have been surprised by how supply chains are responding to tariff turmoil. In mid-December I included this almost throw-away-line in a note to selected clients: The most heavily tariffed imports will likely become rare, consumer prices on rarities will spike, and US exports will shrivel from retaliation. If […]
  • March retail trajectory
    Yesterday the US Census Bureau reported: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $734.9 billion, up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2024. Total sales […]
  • Full value or fickle tariffs
    The following was contributed by a reader who has asked to remain anonymous. Many thanks — and apologies — to William Shakespeare. Let me not to the supply of demandAdmit impediments; trade is not tradeWhich alters as politics commands,Or bends with the remover to remove.O no, it is a value-fixèd markThat looks on tempests and […]
  • Resilience: Cause or Effect?
    Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance. Strong men believe in cause and effect. (Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Conduct of Life, 1860) Gravity’s effect is variable, but its influence (as far as I know) is unavoidable. Friction has both beneficial and problematic effects depending on context or purpose. Supply chains constantly manage gravity and […]
  • Most pernicious tariffs
    Below is an interview from this morning’s Bloomberg Surveillance. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says that the sector-specific tariffs (previously discussed here) are the “most pernicious”: causing the most harm in a surprising way. Derived from the Latin per-nicies meaning by- or through-death. She expects the current automotive, steel, and aluminum tariffs to be joined […]

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