Near-term Vaccine Flows

The recommended pause in administering the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will have modest near-term network-level impacts. For a host of reasons, J&J has not been expected to begin releasing large numbers of doses until late April and May. This week (April 12-17) the J&J allocation for states was sized — pre-pause — at about 700,000 doses compared with almost twenty million doses for the combined Moderna and Pfizer vaccine flows. Below is how Bloomberg has estimated production outputs. J&J is continuing vaccine production. If and when J&J is un-paused total flows will catch up.