On January 1 pipeline flows of Russian natural gas across Ukraine to Veľké Kapušany, Slovakia (and elsewhere) came to an end (see map below, principal flows have moved between Sudzha, Russia (yellow NE) and Veľké Kapušany (yellow SW) ).
In February it will be three years since the Russians invaded Ukraine. Despite the war, a preexisting five year transit contract has been honored by Ukraine and deliveries continued. Volumes have gradually declined (here, here, and see chart below). But in 2024 more than 40 million cubic meters per day continued to flow west across the battlelines. (More and more and more.) Since mid-December EU natural gas futures prices have risen about one-quarter, perhaps as much because of cold weather as the anticipated loss of this gas connection (here and here).
There are many reasons that these natural gas flows continued for so long and now have stopped. Where high volume, high velocity channels between motivated buyers and sellers are available, flows are predisposed to persist. Ukraine consumed Russian gas (as did Moldova). Ukraine also earned close to $1 billion in annual transit fees. But as so often happens, “carrier” complications — as in an existential Russian military threat — finally combined to curtail and then terminate midstream flows. Downstream and upstream disruption/ destruction certainly happens (and can quickly devastate network flows), but midstream constraints are more common and can be just as profound.
