On the day before Thanksgiving, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reported, “Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis … Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).” (Numbers are NOT inflation-adjusted.)
Bloomberg noted, “Income figures from the October PCE report offer the possibility for healthy spending growth in the months ahead. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income increased 0.4% last month, the most since January. Moreover, nominal wages and salaries rose a solid 0.5%, while the saving rate increased for the first time since the start of the year.”
Reuters highlighted, “Spending was largely driven by strong demand for services, including healthcare, housing and utilities, financial services and insurance, dining out and hotel stays as well as transportation and recreation. Services spending rose 0.5%.” Real — inflation-adjusted — expenditures on groceries continued to gradually increase. In October 2019 (pre-pandemic) the real PCE for food was $1073 billion In March 2023 US consumers spent $1141 billion chained-dollars on Food-At-Home. This completed a post-pandemic readjustment in food expenditures. Real spending on groceries has increased ever since. Last month the BEA estimates $1177 billion was spent on Food-At-Home. (here)
I am posting these October results on the morning of Black Friday. Expectations abound for record spending today and over the weekend. Tomorrow I will return here for some near-real-time results.
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November 30 Update: Early “flash” estimates suggests Black Friday brick-and-mortar retail sales were flat increasing less than 1 percent compared to 2023. But MasterCard SpendingPlus calculates online transactions being more than 14 percent higher for an overall sales increase of about 3.4 percent (NOT inflation adjusted). The Associated Press explained, “… the prospect of better bargains in the days ahead and the ease of e-commerce drained much of the excitement from the holiday shopping season’s much-hyped kickoff. (More from Reuters)
Flash results can morph. But if these results are more — rather than less — accurate, three supply chain implications can be derived:
- Online purchasing with omnichannel fulfillment continues to be intensely competitive. This is where innovation and execution can dramatically differentiate financial outcomes.
- Huge demand is growing at a sustainable pace. Suppliers who are effective in tracking and anticipating consumer preferences can reap significant financial rewards.
- 1+2=strong justification for investing in high volume and high velocity — especially effectively targeted — supply chains.