Warwick: Hurry up and Wait

Below is a helpful Bloomberg interview (under 8 minutes). David Warwick outlines fundamental tariff-related issues facing supply chain decision-makers. While the Tech supply chain is front-and-center, very similar issues face most other sectors. Warwick is wonderful at concisely capturing the challenge now complicating supply chains. I am less impressed by his hope that common sense will yet prevail and continued flows will be reasonably facilitated. My concise take on a very complicated context: Import costs have suddenly increased by more than ten percent (much more on products from China or those related to strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum; see more here). Tariff turmoil will continue to seriously disrupt supply, demand, physical movement, and financial options for the remainder of this year… and probably beyond. While an average twenty-five percent US tariff rate may now be avoided, fifteen to twenty percent remains plausible. Tactical and strategic options differ for each product category and each enterprise. But adapting wisely to this already changed context — and the prospect of further trade constraints — is absolutely in the self-interest of every enterprise and in the public interest as well.