It’s been about a month since the UK’s covid hospitalization rate began to bend up again (see chart below). Over the last several months the US has typically lagged UK by four to six weeks. Hospitalization rates have been especially troublesome (e.g., delta or omicron) when similar demand curves coincided for the UK, Denmark, Israel, and the United States. Right now the UK’s demand curve may have plateaued. Israel and Denmark have continued to show declining demand for hospitalization (the difference seems to be mostly a matter of proportional vaccination rates and, especially, booster rates). It is likely that US covid hospitalizations will increase during April and probably into early May. Meanwhile another new variant (well, more than one) seems to be emerging, with potential demand implications for late Spring and early Summer.
