Channels tend to persist

Russia said it would no longer participate in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, accusing Ukraine of using the export corridor to cover attacks on Russian naval assets. Despite this Saturday announcement, bulk cargo ships have continued to depart Ukraine’s designated ports (see map below) and inspections have continued consistent with the UN-Turkey brokered agreement. According to Ukraine, on Monday, October 31, 354,500 tons of agricultural products were extracted through the corridor. (Even more quickly than usual? Many more ships departed than arrived.) When commodity markets opened on Monday, trading volumes surged and so did prices (see chart below)… before softening late in the trading day. Today, November 1, early trading on December wheat has opened lower (but then moved up about 2 percent, more and more and more and more and more). [November 2 Update: UN and Ukrainian sources indicate eight vessels are expected to transit the grain corridor on November 3 (more and more). Later on November 2: Never mind, Putin says Russia will resume its participation in the Black Sea Initiative… four more vessels departed with grain… Wheat futures fell… (more and more).]