Vaccine Production Forecast

Bloomberg has a new report out on how vaccine flow should build over the next few months. For what it is worth, Bloomberg provides evidentiary detail very similar to what I have been scribbling on the back of an envelope. Their projection is both plausible and consistent with serious plans and specific efforts. Their final counts also depend on all the production puzzle pieces to be put in place on time and over time. This is possible too, but some delays and problems are even more likely (e.g. this and this) says me. But flows of about this size on about this schedule can be reasonably anticipated.

According to Bloomberg, “Currently, the U.S. is administering 1.6 million doses a day, constrained by the recent supply of about 10 million to 15 million doses a week. But Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers and U.S. officials have accelerated their production timelines and signaled that the spigots are about to open, providing hundreds of millions of doses to match the growing capacity to immunize people at pharmacies and mass-vaccination sites. A review of drugmakers’ public statements and their supply deals suggests that the number of vaccines delivered should rise to almost 20 million a week in March, more than 25 million a week in April and May, and over 30 million a week June. By summer, it would be enough to give 4.5 million shots a day.”

UPDATE: On February 19 Pfizer revealed it is only weeks away from opening a second filling and finishing plant in McPherson, Kansas. This could double current US throughputs of Pfizer’s vaccine by the end of March.