Dog days bite and hold on tight

[Updates below] Several days of unrelenting triple digits plus several million people plus an electric grid (more) built for considerably lower demand: Do you perceive a potential problem?

You can keep looking here:

Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Dashboard

Unfortunately the EIA Electric Grid Monitor continues to be down…

Here are some prior comments on the near-term risks facing Texas electric power consumers and downstream systems… meaning most of modern life, certainly including supply chains.

Texas is not the only region facing serious gaps between demand and current grid power capacity (more and more). But the Texas grid is designed to be even more self-reliant than most, and arguably more vulnerable as a result.

Monday Afternoon Update

At 3:30 Central Time the temperature in Dallas is 108 degrees Fahrenheit. Demand is about 2100 megawatts less than current capacity (not counting ancillary services) or within three percent of current capacity. At 3:47 demand was slightly higher. At 3:57 electrical use had increased by about 360 megawatts. I will admit my felt concern was heightened when 1200 miles away a thunderstorm knocked out our grid for about an hour while I was monitoring ERCOT. It is much better to look at supply-and-demand measures than an outage map.

According to S&P today’s most serious threat for continued flows may come at sunset when temperatures will still be in the triple digits and solar power drops. Texas spot prices for natural gas are surging.

July 19 Update: Below is the complete demand curve for the ERCOT grid on Monday July 18. Despite the high temps, demand stayed just below production capacity even as the sun set. But the forecast is for as hot or hotter today… and August is still to come.